Apple: Morgan Stanley Cuts Target, Ests, iPhone Forecast

How many iPhones can Apple sell next year? Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster , in assessing how many phones the company might sell if the reports of a distribution deal with Wal-Mart are accurate , repeated his view that the company can sell 45 million phones in calendar 2009. But Morgan Stanley’s Kathyrn Huberty this morning asserted in a research note that the Street in general is far too optimistic about the prospects for the iPhone. In fact, Huberty cut her own forecast for calendar 2009 to 14 million units from 19 million, and asserted that price cuts might be necessary to stimulate demand. She says a Morgan Stanley survey of 2,500 consumers found that “extreme” interest in the iPhone is lower than in the firm’s February 2007 survey, at 5%, down from 7%. The survey also found that PC purchasing plans for next year are at half the level in 2005. And she says that iPod penetration in the U.S. has peaked, and that new purchases by the installed base this ... (link)