Cell Phones: Oppenheimer Sees Q4 Units Flat Vs. Q3; Cuts ‘09 View; Trims Ests On MOT, NOK, RIMM, RFMD, CELL

Conditions in the global handset market continue to deteriorate, according to Oppenheimer analyst Ittai Kidron . Kidron now sees global handset sell-in for Q4 of 315 million units, flat with Q3, and below the recent Nokia forecast of 330 million units. He says that checks find production cuts by OEMs, inventory reduction by carriers and weaker sell through in most regions, especially in November. He still sees a 5% decline in 2009 handset sales, but off a lower base: his forecast is now for 1.168 billion handsets next year, down from 1.229 billion. At the same time, Kidron says that we have reached “ASP crunch time,” and that some handset makers will aggressively cut prices to maintain shipment levels. He said that LG and Sony Ericsson were reportedly cutting prices by as much as 20% to carriers on many models. And Kidron writes that he believes Apple has lowered priced to carriers as well. Kidron also warns that there could be incrementally negative data on the state of ... (link)