PCs: Will Netbooks, Currency Mean Big ‘09 Rev Decline?

The PC industry could sees an unnervingly large drop in revenues in 2009. Bank of America’s Scott Craig today cautioned that a combination of factors - the weaker economy, the stronger dollar and the increased popularity of low-cost netbooks - are likely to translate into a much larger retraction in industry revenues than many believe. Today, he cut his PC unit forecast for 2009 to 3% growth, from 5%. And he now sees an 11% industry revenue decline, worse than his previous forecast of a 3% decline. Craig says that the rise of netbooks, with average selling prices in the $300-$600 range, combined with a recessionary economy, will likely mean a sharper drop in prices than in recent years. He now sees ASPs down 11%18%, worse than his old forecast of an 8%-10% decline. “We believe the Street may be under-estimating the impact of ASP decline on revenue in 2009,” he asserts. Craig reports that Asian channel checks find “continued downward pressure” on PC build rates. ... (link)